Interest in a candidate is booming on Twitter, but the tweets are overwhelmingly negative. An early lead in opinion polls is closing. What's going on? David Rothschild is out to answer that question. Social-media activity generates data that analysts tag for interest and sentiment. The resulting numbers, Rothschild says, are meaningless without full context, just as poll numbers and prediction market data can be misleading unless you correct for known biases. In ten years, Rothschild predicts, smarter people-watching "will make polling as we know it essentially obsolete." Rothschild is working to improve prediction science to create meaningful, transparent products that everyone can understand and use.

Attendees who register at the CASW website can download background material and the presentation at http://casw.org/new-horizons/new-horizons-science-2012/briefs/predicting....